South Florida’s real estate market is a bit like the weather
here—always changing, sometimes unpredictable, and definitely worth paying
attention to. With the recent election results, there’s been a lot of chatter
about what might happen to the housing market, especially here in Miami and the
surrounding areas.
By looking at what happened during past election cycles, we
can get a sense of how things might play out and what that could mean for local
buyers, sellers, and residents.
A Flashback: What Happened to Real Estate When Trump Was
Elected Before?
Back in 2016, when Donald Trump became president, South
Florida saw some noticeable shifts in its real estate market. One of the
biggest factors? Taxes. The 2017 tax reforms capped deductions for state and
local taxes (known as SALT), which made it harder for people in high-tax states
like New York and California to save money on their taxes. Many of them decided
to head south to places like Miami, where there’s no state income tax and
plenty of sun.
This migration boosted the luxury market in particular.
Suddenly, high-end condos and waterfront estates were selling like hotcakes.
Celebrities, CEOs, and international investors flocked to South Florida, giving
the area a reputation as a hotspot for the ultra-wealthy.
If you lived here at
the time, you probably noticed an increase in new developments—and luxury cars
on the road. Unlike the FLASH crowd, often known to locals for their “show-off” tendencies (all FLASH, no cash), these buyers were serious, well-funded individuals who put their money where their lifestyle is. They were making significant investments in the local real estate market.
What Could Happen This Time Around?
So, now that Trump’s back in the headlines, it’s worth
asking: Could we see a repeat of the past? While no one has a crystal ball,
there are some trends that might be carried over and some new challenges to
keep in mind.
South Florida remains a tax-friendly state, and that’s not
changing anytime soon. If people from high-tax states decide to move here
again, we could see another wave of demand for homes. This would likely affect
luxury properties the most, but even mid-range homes could feel the pressure as
more buyers enter the market.
We’ve already seen South Florida become a playground for the
wealthy. That trend could continue, with high-profile buyers scooping up
million-dollar mansions and penthouses. While that’s great news for the luxury
market, it could also make housing even less affordable for local residents who
are trying to compete for homes at lower price points.
As home prices rise, so do rents. For many residents who
aren’t ready to buy, this could mean tighter budgets and fewer options. Areas
like Kendall, Coral Gables, Pinecrest and The Falls might see an uptick in
competition for rental properties, making it even harder for renters to secure
affordable housing.
Let’s not forget: more people moving in also means more
traffic, crowded schools, and longer lines just about everywhere. While growth
brings opportunities—like new jobs and development, it also puts stress on
public services and infrastructure. Balancing this growth with the needs of
long-term residents will be key for South Florida in the years ahead.
How Does This Affect People Living Here?
For many longtime residents, these shifts can feel like a
mixed bag. On one hand, rising property values can mean higher equity if you’re
a homeowner. But on the other hand, it might also mean higher property taxes
for those buying new homes or investment properties, as the Save Our Homes cap only applies
to your current primary residence.
If you’re looking to upgrade or downsize, you could face a
reset in your property’s assessed value, leading to higher taxes than you may
be used to.First-time buyers, in particular, might feel the squeeze. Competing
with out-of-state cash buyers can be frustrating, especially when affordability
is already a challenge in Miami. It’s more important than ever to have a
strategy—and a good real estate agent—to navigate these waters.
Note: Save Our Homes is a Florida law that helps protect homeowners from skyrocketing property
taxes. Basically, if you own and live in your home as your primary residence,
the assessed value of your property (which is what taxes are based on) can’t
increase by more than 3% per year or the rate of inflation, whichever is lower.
It’s a great way to keep your taxes predictable, even if home values in your
neighborhood are shooting up. But, if you sell your home or buy a new one, the
cap doesn’t transfer fully, you’ll likely see your property taxes reset based
on the new purchase price. It’s a valuable benefit for homeowners who plan to
stay in their homes for the long haul.
What Does the Future Hold?
South Florida is resilient, and its real estate market is no
exception. While changes are inevitable, the region’s appeal—its weather,
culture, and diversity—continues to make it a sought-after destination. Whether
you’re looking to buy, sell, or rent, staying informed and prepared is key to
making the most of these changes.
Thinking about making a move in Kendall or the surrounding
areas? Let’s chat! Whether you’re curious about how these shifts might affect
your plans or just need some guidance, I’m here to help. Contact me today for
personalized advice.